============================================================
  DEMAND FORECAST
  Didactic Python code · Kardex Tauro · kardex-tauro.muisca.co
============================================================
Months read: 24
Neural network: 3 -> 4 -> 1 (sigmoid)
Moving-average window: 3 months
Range of the series: 150.00 to 310.00 units

TRAINING: 2000 epochs, rate 0.10, seed 7
  Epoch 250/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.123172
  Epoch 500/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.093869
  Epoch 750/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.090124
  Epoch 1000/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.086684
  Epoch 1250/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.083594
  Epoch 1500/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.081671
  Epoch 1750/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.079976
  Epoch 2000/2000 · average error (0-1 scale) 0.078619

THE SERIES, THE MOVING AVERAGE AND THE NETWORK
------------------------------------------------------------
Month    Status             Units   3-month avg    Net 3-4-1
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2026-01  no history        157.00                           
2026-02  no history        150.00                           
2026-03  no history        151.00                           
2026-04  evaluated         165.00        152.67       173.06
2026-05  evaluated         177.00        155.33       177.41
2026-06  evaluated         196.00        164.33       183.35
2026-07  evaluated         184.00        179.33       197.06
2026-08  evaluated         179.00        185.67       192.49
2026-09  evaluated         190.00        186.33       191.98
2026-10  evaluated         214.00        184.33       196.61
2026-11  evaluated         233.00        194.33       214.01
2026-12  evaluated         219.00        212.33       234.10
2027-01  evaluated         233.00        222.00       228.92
2027-02  evaluated         223.00        228.33       244.05
2027-03  evaluated         223.00        225.00       233.46
2027-04  evaluated         231.00        226.33       235.97
2027-05  evaluated         255.00        225.67       240.46
2027-06  evaluated         273.00        236.33       259.59
2027-07  evaluated         264.00        253.00       273.21
2027-08  evaluated         245.00        264.00       272.54
2027-09  evaluated         260.00        260.67       263.53
2027-10  evaluated         297.00        256.33       270.39
2027-11  evaluated         310.00        267.33       285.34
2027-12  evaluated         294.00        289.00       291.03
------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================
SUMMARY: WHO MISSES BY LESS
============================================================
  Months evaluated (those with 3 months of history): 21
  Average absolute error of the 3-month moving average: 17.32 units
  Average absolute error of the 3-4-1 neural network: 12.58 units
  Forecast for 2028-01 - 3-month moving average: 300.33 units
  Forecast for 2028-01 - 3-4-1 neural network: 289.71 units
  Winner in this case: 3-4-1 neural network (12.58 units of error against 17.32 units)
  Check (same seed, same result): TIES
  File written: salida/pronostico.csv
