The CLARITY Act: what changes if the Senate votes yes, and what changes if it votes no

The CLARITY Act: what changes if the Senate votes yes, and what changes if it votes no

Summary of the fact

The United States Senate will vote on September 15 on the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act). It is a procedural vote: it decides whether the bill keeps moving, not whether it is already law.

The law divides the watchdog work. The SEC, the regulator of the stock markets, would watch the cryptocurrencies that work like shares. The CFTC, the regulator of raw materials, would watch the ones that work like raw materials, such as bitcoin. It also creates federal rules for exchanges, middlemen and stablecoins. A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency made to always be worth the same, almost always one dollar. The data comes from CoinDesk, Decrypt, CriptoTendencia and Portal do Bitcoin, on September 9 and 10, 2026.

What it means

Today it is not clear which agency should watch each cryptocurrency. That doubt slows big companies down: they do not know which rules to follow and they invest less. If the law divides the work, they would know which door to knock on.

The law hits each player in a different way. Exchanges would get clear federal rules, banks would compete with platforms under new rules, and small investors would gain protection, though at higher costs.

Brian Armstrong, head of the Coinbase platform, told CNBC that the law has support from both parties, from banks, from crypto companies and from police groups. He said the points Coinbase considered key are already settled.

Not everyone agrees. Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan bank, accused Coinbase of using the stablecoin rules to look for the softest rule against banks. Armstrong answered, without naming him, that those critics have a competition problem and talk about their own business. He said Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon and Fidelity support the law.

The point still to be agreed is the ethics rules for elected officials who hold digital assets: the White House proposed a very strong rule and Democrats asked for more, including that they sell those assets. Armstrong said both sides are very close, and banks and crypto companies are pressing senators in their own states.

What can happen

These scenarios are conditioned possibilities, not a prediction.

Scenario one: the Senate votes yes. This happens only if senators approve the advance on September 15. Then the law keeps moving and big companies could speed up their plans in the United States. Bitcoin could rise at first, but it is not guaranteed: it is around US$78,000 and it has been falling because of high interest rates, costly oil and money leaving the funds.

Scenario two: the Senate votes no. This happens if the advance is rejected. Armstrong said it would still be a good result, because the SEC and the CFTC are ready to publish their own rules, and there would be clarity on the 15th or one or two days later. In that case the rules would come faster, but more fragile, with less of a counterweight.

Scenario three: the vote is delayed. This happens if both sides do not close the text on ethics before September 15. The legal doubt would stay the same for more weeks, companies would wait and the money could stay still.

What to watch

• The result of the September 15 vote.
• The final text on ethics rules for elected officials.
• The bitcoin price reaction and the money coming into and out of bitcoin funds.
• What the SEC and the CFTC say if the law does not pass.

Sources: CoinDesk and Decrypt (United States), CriptoTendencia (Latin America) and Portal do Bitcoin (Brazil). September 10, 2026.