Argentina's 2027 budget forecasts 18% inflation and a dollar at 1,847 pesos

Argentina's 2027 budget forecasts 18% inflation and a dollar at 1,847 pesos

Argentina's Ministry of Economy sent the 2027 budget bill to the Chamber of Deputies on Tuesday. The text is a roadmap: it states how much the state plans to collect and where it plans to spend next year.

The main numbers are clear. The plan expects the economy to grow 4% in 2027. It also estimates annual inflation of 18%. And it sets an official exchange rate of 1,847.60 pesos per dollar for December 2027. For 2026, the bill estimates growth of 3%.

What the official exchange rate is

The official exchange rate is the price of the dollar set by the state. It is the value used for formal transactions, such as exporting, importing or paying debts in foreign currency.

The dollar in the budget is a technical number. The state needs a reference to convert income, spending and debts held in dollars into pesos. The bill uses an average exchange rate of about 1,728 pesos for all of 2027. For December it uses 1,847.60 pesos.

A comparison: today the official dollar stands at 1,530 pesos. For the end of 2026 it is estimated at 1,600 pesos. In other words, the December 2027 figure is 20.76% above the current value and 15.48% above the estimate for the end of 2026.

The idea of fiscal balance

The core of the plan is sustained fiscal balance. In simple words: the state must not spend more than it collects. If it spends more, it has to borrow or print money. That usually pushes prices up.

With inflation at 18%, the plan assumes the dollar rises roughly in line with prices. That means the dollar does not fall behind inflation.

Wages, pensions and spending

• Wages: the budget projects an average increase of 25.4% for 2027, above the estimated inflation.
• Social security benefits rise almost 30%.
• The plan keeps the strategy of cutting state spending. One example: the increase for UNAM is only 1%.

What economists say

Economists see the 18% inflation as reasonable. But they doubt the economy can grow 4% in an election year. Consumption and investment do not show that strength.

Fuentes: La Nacion, Infobae y Ambito (Argentina). 16 de septiembre de 2026.