The ECB sees moderate euro-area wages: 2.7% in 2027

The ECB sees moderate euro-area wages: 2.7% in 2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the institution that manages the money of the 20 countries that use the euro. Today, 16 September 2026, it published its wage tracker. This indicator measures something simple: what companies and workers agree in wage deals.

The main figure says that agreed wages would rise 2.7% in the first half of 2027. That is a moderate rise, meaning no big jumps.

What collective bargaining is

Collective bargaining is the wage agreement between companies and unions. Unions are groups that represent workers. Both sides sit down, talk and sign a deal. That deal says how much workers will earn in the coming months or years. The ECB indicator looks at those signed deals, not at the pay each person actually receives.

The numbers in the report

• For 2026, the indicator with smoothed one-off payments stands at 2.2%. Coverage is 46.9% of employees in the participating countries.
• In the first half of 2027 coverage is still limited, 28.8%. It will rise as new deals are signed.
• The indicator without smoothing one-off payments fell from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.
• The indicator that excludes one-off payments is at 2.6% on average in 2026. This shows that one-off payments played a limited role in recent deals.

Changes since July

Compared with the July 2026 reading, the indicator with smoothed one-off payments was revised slightly down for 2026. The main indicator was almost unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.

Why it matters

Wages are one of the drivers of inflation, which is the general rise in prices, especially in services. If wages rise slowly, there is less pressure on the ECB to raise its interest rates again.

The interest rate is the price paid for borrowing money. When that rate goes up, loans and mortgages cost more. The ECB has just raised its rates on 10 September, to 2.50% for the deposit rate, because of energy-driven inflation.

Bloomberg headlined the news this way: euro-area wage growth would speed up in 2027, according to the ECB.

Fuentes: Banco Central Europeo (comunicado oficial del 16 de septiembre de 2026) y Bloomberg. 16 de septiembre de 2026.