OECD raises global growth forecast to 2.9% for 2026 and warns about public debt
OECD raises global growth forecast to 2.9% for 2026 and warns about public debt
The OECD, the club of rich countries, presented its interim Economic Outlook report on Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
In that report it raised its forecast for world economic growth in 2026: from 2.8% to 2.9%. That is a small change, like a power bill going up by a few coins.
Brazil, Spain and Argentina
For Brazil, the forecast rose from 1.6% to 2%. The OECD explained that emerging G20 economies such as India, Indonesia and Brazil are growing on domestic demand, meaning spending by families and companies inside the country itself, and on public policies that softened the blow of energy prices.
For Spain, the forecast rose from 2.2% to 2.6%, more than double the eurozone figure. But the OECD sharply revised Spanish inflation up, to 3.7%. Inflation is when prices rise and money buys less.
For Argentina, the forecast was cut to 2.6% for 2026, 0.2 points less, and to 3.0% for 2027, 0.5 points less. The country had grown 4.5%.
| Country or area | Forecast for 2026 |
|---|---|
| World | 2.9% |
| Brazil | 2% |
| Spain | 2.6% |
| Argentina | 2.6% |
The warning: debt
The main warning is the rise in government bond yields. A government bond is a loan made to the State. With a higher yield the State pays more interest, and a growing share of public spending goes to paying that debt.
The OECD chief economist, Stefano Scarpetta, said one reason for the higher cost is that investors doubt public accounts. The body asked countries to hold back spending.
Chained crises and risks
The OECD says economies learned to navigate chained crises: Covid, the war in Ukraine, Trump's trade offensive and the conflict in the Middle East. Investment in artificial intelligence and aid to make energy cheaper partly offset the impact of the war in the Middle East.
Among the risks it points to more pressure on prices, slower growth in the real income of families and higher interest rates. Only half of the fiscal measures to lower the cost of energy are being applied correctly, the report says.
Sources: Expansión (Spain), Ámbito (Argentina), O Globo (Brazil) and Folha de S.Paulo (Brazil). September 23, 2026.
